While the risk of war between Russia and Ukraine has risen to the top of the global agenda, another conflict in a different region is getting worse and could have broad international repercussions, too. The two conflicts are indirectly connected and could influence critical strategic issues concerning Israel.
In recent days, the Houthi rebels in Yemen supported by Iran have stepped up their attacks on the United Arab Emirates. A coordinated attack of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and drones on oil facilities in Abu Dhabi last week included precise hits on fuel trucks, causing casualties and a fire at the airport. The missiles and drones were launched from a distance of about 1,300 kilometers.
A second attack on the UAE, which seems to have included cruise missiles, occurred Monday night. Some of the missiles and drones were intercepted by American defenses, according to reports. The attack was accompanied by a call from the Houthis for foreign companies to close their operations in the Gulf.
Allied with Saudi Arabia, the UAE has taken an active part in the civil war in Yemen, siding with the government against the Houthi rebels. In 2019, after a large Iranian attack that damaged oil facilities belonging to Aramco in Saudi Arabia, the Emirates reduced their role in the war and withdrew most of their forces from Yemen. The latest Houthi attacks came in response to increased Saudi attacks in Yemen.
Western intelligence agencies say the Houthis cannot be acting without instructions (or, at the very least, permission) from Iran, whose Revolutionary Guards are involved in the fighting in Yemen. The Houthis have their own reasons for acting, but it is also possible that increasing pressure on the UAE, in spite of the withdrawal of its forces over two years ago, was meant to send a broader regional message on Tehran’s behalf. Iranian pressure on the UAE will likely damage Emirati relations with Saudi Arabia and weaken the regional anti-Iran alliance.
The attacks are happening at the same time the world powers are struggling in Vienna to reach a new deal to limit Iran’s nuclear project. Demonstrations of Iranian military power and determination in the Gulf, even if they are carried out by its proxies, send a message to the powers in negotiations with Tehran.
Israel is watching carefully what is happening in the Gulf, while monitoring the indirect impact of what is occurring on the border between Russia and Ukraine.
Not long ago, the Biden administration spoke proudly of the relatively successful coordination it had achieved with the Russians in the nuclear talks. To Iran, Moscow may have played the role of good cop in the Vienna talks, but it was in direct contact with American representatives, who are not taking a direct part in the negotiations.
Now, Ukraine tensions are poisoning the relations between the powers and threatening their ability to continue to cooperate in the nuclear talks. As long as Russia is threatening to use military force and concentrating its troops on the border, and the United States is talking about sending its troops to Ukraine, whether its own or as a part of NATO, the ability of the two powers to coordinate positions on Iranian nukes is becoming ever more remote.
Over Syrian skies
In the past few weeks, Russian warplanes have conducted unusual flights over southern Syria, near the border with Israel on the Golan Heights and over the Eastern Mediterranean. The flights were done in coordination with Syrian warplanes. It seems these are designed as a display of power by Moscow.
In 2015, after the occupation of Crimea and parts of eastern Ukraine saddled Russia with Western sanctions, Russian leader Vladimir Putin decided to aid the Assad regime, which was then facing defeat in the civil war. The Russia Air Force saved the Syrian dictator’s skin while enabling Moscow to demonstrate its power and willingness to act in the international arena. Today, Russia is firmly entrenched in the region, and the relative stability the Assad regime enjoys doesn’t require Putin to go too far out of his way to throw his weight around the Middle East.
Israel is also worried by the waning level of American attention to the Iranian threat, which to Israel is of supreme importance. The more the United States is distracted by what is happening in Ukraine, the harder it is for Israel to continue applying pressure in the nuclear talks.
As the conflict in Ukraine worsens, officials in Jerusalem expect the United States to gradually lift its foot from the gas on the Iranian nuclear issue. That will enable Tehran to continue to drag the talks out, while it makes progress in enriching uranium and shortening the “breakout time” for manufacturing a nuclear weapon in the future.
One can cautiously assume that four-party talks are now being conducted between the United States, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Israel over how to respond to the recent attacks from Yemen on Emirati territory. Israel condemned the first attack on Abu Dhabi, and expressed its support for the UAE.
These events are occurring over a year after the signing of the Abraham Accords, with relations strengthening amid mutual visits and events. On Tuesday, it was reported that President Isaac Herzog will visit the UAE next week. But when the UAE is under attack, there isn’t much Israel can do to help publicly to defend it.
Israel is carefully monitoring the operational military capabilities of the Houthis, as well as those of other Iranian-backed groups, such as the Shi’ite militias in Iraq. An Iranian drone launched from Syria was shot down in Israel four years ago and again in 2021, the second one probably launched from Iraq.
Some of the drones and cruise missiles in Yemen may have the capability of reaching the Eilat area, even though it is a distance of over 2,000 kilometers. A number Iranian and Arab media have reported threats that Israel will be the Houthis’ next target. It’s highly unlikely anything like this will happen soon, but defense officials are still taking the possibility into account.